MARKET & POLICIES · INSIGHT 013

Is an executive condo worth buying? New, yes — 19,827 exits say so. Resale is a different question.

The EC is the most argued-over purchase in Singapore housing: a condo with an income cap, a minimum occupation period and a privatisation clock. We matched every EC bought and later sold against the private condo it most resembles. The answer is clear, and it depends on who you buy from.

Farhan Adenan · 29 Sep 2026 · 10 min read

POV matched-pair model: matched pair = same unit bought then sold, hold of at least one year. URA REALIS via the Huttons export, 1995 to 1 Sep 2026. Private comparison = 99-year Condominium/Apartment pairs in the OCR. Gross returns, before stamp duty, interest and fees.

Yes. A new executive condo has been worth buying, and the record is not close. Across 19,827 matched EC exits — the same unit bought, then sold — the median owner made 4.89% a year, and 94.2% sold above what they paid. The median gain was $367k over a median hold of 8.2 years.

The fair comparison is not “private property” in general. It is the unit an EC eventually becomes: a 99-year condominium or apartment in the Outside Central Region. Same tenure, same region, same kind of buyer on the way out. That group — 71,924 exits — returned 3.17% a year, with 87.5% profitable and a median gain of $192k over 6.7 years.

EC owners made nearly double the dollars, at a higher annual rate, and lost money less often. Among the 10,985 EC exits recorded since 2021, 99.5% were profitable, at a median gain of $481.6k and 5.58% a year.

The rest of this piece is the evidence, and the reason behind it — because the reason decides whether the answer applies to you.

Buyers before 2000 bought into a peak and sold through a long flat stretch. Private owners made 0.50% a year, 55.6% profitable. EC owners made 2.12% a year, 73.4% profitable. Same years, a different product.

The 2010–14 cohort bought near the top of the last cycle and sat through the flat years that followed. EC: 4.11% a year, 96.1% profitable. Private: 1.91%, 88.6% profitable. More than double the rate.

The 2015–19 cohort is the standout: 7.44% a year against 4.03%, and a median gain of $510k against $221k. Nearly every seller in both groups made money (99.9% and 98.3%); the size of the win was in a different league.

The one exception is 2005–09: 6.37% against 6.57%. Call it a tie. Both groups bought ahead of the post-2009 run, and the private owners in that cohort held a median 4.64 years against 6.47 for the EC owners.

Held five to ten years, the EC owner made 4.93% a year against 2.39%. Held ten to fifteen, 4.48% against 2.65%. Held fifteen years or more, 3.59% against 2.99% — and all 1,474 EC exits in that band were profitable.

Look at the dollars in that last band. The median EC gain after fifteen-plus years was $513k; the private gain was $499k. Almost level.

If ECs were simply better buildings, the gap would hold or widen with time. Instead it is widest in the five-to-ten-year band and shrinks the longer the unit is held — the pattern you would expect if most of the EC premium arrives early, as a one-off step, then gets spread across more years.

An EC is sold by a developer to households under an income ceiling — now $18,000 a month (what the new ceilings change) — at a price set below comparable private condos. It is a subsidised product with eligibility conditions attached, and the subsidy sits in the entry price.

Then the clock runs. After the five-year minimum occupation period, the owner can sell on the open market to a wider pool of buyers, and prices re-rate toward private values. At year ten the development becomes fully private, and more of the remaining gap closes.

So the EC premium in our data is not a building that compounds faster. It is a discount captured at purchase and released on a schedule. That is why the gap is widest in the five-to-ten-year band, where first owners exit after MOP, and thinnest past fifteen years.

Who keeps the premium. The gain in these pairs belongs overwhelmingly to first buyers — the households who bought from the developer at the discounted price. The limit, stated plainly: the export has no purchase-type field, so our pairs cannot separate a first owner’s exit from a resale buyer’s. We reason from structure instead.

A buyer who purchases a post-MOP EC on the resale market pays a price that has already re-rated toward private. From that point, the unit behaves like any 99-year OCR condo. That buyer is on the 3.17% a year, 87.5% profitable line, not the 4.89%, 94.2% line. The discount was real, and it was paid out to the seller.

One step can remain if you buy before year ten: full privatisation. How much is left depends on how much the seller has already priced in — a number found in the comparables, not the listing.

Bishan Loft in D20 tops the dollar table at a median $1.25m across 41 pairs. Hundred Palms Residences in D19 is second at $966k, and posts the highest rate in the top twelve at 10.4% a year. Treasure Crest ($740k, 8.72% a year) and Wandervale ($666k, 8.16%) follow the same pattern: large gains at high rates.

Read the rate column alongside the dollars. Westmere’s median gain is $759k, but at 3.59% a year. A big dollar number at a modest rate usually means a long hold, and the rate is the fairer comparison between projects.

Note the addresses too: D18, D19, D20, D22, D23. Every project on the list sits outside the city core.

If you are eligible for a new EC, take it seriously. On this record it is the strongest exit profile of any housing type we track. The catch is time: the premium is released on the MOP and privatisation schedule, so the owner who can hold through it is the one who collects. That is holding power, not timing. For the upgrader route that follows the MOP exit, read The EC Flip.

If you are looking at a resale EC, price it as the 99-year OCR condo it is, or is about to become. Compare it with 99-year private condos of similar age nearby. If it already trades at private levels, you are buying the 3.17% line, and you should pay for that line — not for the 4.89% one, which belonged to the seller. If it is before year ten and still priced below private, the gap you are buying is the privatisation step. Measure it before you pay for it.

If the rules are the question, see Three housing changes in four months; the eligibility conditions are published by HDB.

GUIDES & INSIGHTS · FRAMEWORK 02

The EC Flip. You are paid for waiting, not for risk.

The upgrader playbook built on the MOP exit — and why the return is a payment for time.

MARKET & POLICIES · INSIGHT 008

The ceiling moved to $16,000. So did the grant most buyers actually get.

What the higher HDB and EC income ceilings change, and which households they bring into range.

Dataset — POV matched-pair model on the Huttons Export Transactions file (URA REALIS-derived), 1995 to 1 Sep 2026: 623,578 private non-landed sale rows, 224,023 matched pairs (same unit bought then sold, hold of at least one year). This piece uses 19,827 EC pairs and 71,924 pairs of 99-year OCR condominiums and apartments. Gross returns, before stamp duty, interest and fees.